The President of Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, has warned that the ongoing crisis in the Middle East could create a bigger challenge for Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market in terms of product availability rather than price.

Dangote, however, assured Nigerians that his refinery would continue to supply the domestic market and that consumers should not be worried about petrol shortages or queues despite the unfolding geopolitical crisis.

He stated this in an interview aired on Arise TV on Tuesday while speaking on petrol prices, availability and the potential impact of the Middle East crisis on global energy markets.

According to Dangote, the current crisis could have implications for the global supply of petroleum products, potentially shifting attention away from the cost of petrol to whether sufficient volumes would be available to consumers.

“And the problem now, going forward, I must also warn that this crisis in the Middle East is not even about price; it’s about availability,” Dangote said.

The warning comes amid concerns over how developments in the Middle East could affect global energy markets, including the availability and cost of petroleum products.

Despite the potential challenges, Dangote said the Dangote Refinery was prepared to continue meeting domestic demand and would ensure that Nigerians were adequately supplied.

“We will deliver to Nigeria. Nigerians don’t need to worry. There will not be any shortage from our own part.”

He added, “There won’t be any shortage. There will not be any queues. We will make sure that we keep satisfying the market, despite all odds.”

The assurance comes as the country continues to rely increasingly on domestic refining capacity following the commencement of operations at the Dangote refinery, which has been supplying petroleum products to the Nigerian market.

Speaking on why Nigerians continue to perceive petrol as expensive despite the country now having significant domestic refining capacity, Dangote attributed part of the pressure to the continued smuggling of petrol to neighbouring countries where the commodity sells at higher prices.

Dangote said petrol prices in neighbouring countries were between 30 and 50 per cent higher than in Nigeria, arguing that the price disparity created a strong financial incentive for traders to move the commodity across the borders.

“You know, expensive is relative. In the sense that today, maybe, you know, a lot of them, there’s ignorance also. What they need to do is ask, what is the neighbour’s price?” he said.

He said the continued movement of Nigerian petrol across the borders was partly driven by the significant difference between domestic prices and those obtainable in neighbouring countries.

“I don’t know if you know that there’s still a lot of smuggling of the same petrol we are producing to our neighbouring countries.”

According to him, the price gap means that petrol bought in Nigeria can potentially be resold across the border at a substantial premium, creating an incentive for smugglers to divert products meant for the Nigerian market.

“Because those neighbouring countries are about 30 to 50 per cent more expensive than Nigeria. So, it’s not actually like for like.”

Dangote specifically cited Niger, where he said petrol was selling at a premium of between 20 and 25 per cent compared with Nigeria.

He used the example to illustrate why cross-border trade in the commodity could be financially attractive, particularly when the price difference provides an immediate return on investment.

“And people can now go and ask, okay, fine, what is the price of, even now at N1,350? Okay, the price in Niger is 20 to 25 per cent more than Nigeria,” he said.

He questioned what other legitimate business could provide such an immediate return.

“So, what business are you going to do that will make you have an instant 25 per cent return?” he asked.

Dangote further explained how petrol intended for domestic distribution could allegedly be diverted towards the border for sale to buyers in neighbouring countries.

“So, it means that, yes, you take the [petrol], you go and take it across the border. You pretend you are taking it to Sokoto, you go and just take it to Ilela, and you sell.”

He added, “Actually, they don’t have.”

The implication, according to Dangote, is that a product that should remain available to Nigerian consumers can be moved out of the country because of the higher prices obtainable across the border.

The development highlights the challenge faced by the Nigerian downstream sector, where price disparities between Nigeria and neighbouring countries can encourage the diversion of petroleum products and potentially undermine domestic supply.

Beyond the issue of petrol prices and smuggling, Dangote’s comments also placed renewed attention on the role of domestic refining capacity in protecting Nigeria from external shocks in the international energy market.

The assurance from the refinery comes at a time when the company is also seeking to broaden public and institutional participation in its business through its listing on the Nigerian capital market.

The remarks came as investors flooded the Nigerian Exchange on Monday following the opening of the initial public offering of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals.

The N2.15tn IPO was formally opened during the opening gong ceremony at the NGX trading floor in Marina, Lagos, with Dangote sounding the gong to mark the commencement of the offer.

The refinery became the first petroleum refinery to be offered to investors on the Nigerian stock market in the Exchange’s 66-year history.

The IPO comprises 4.1 billion ordinary shares offered at N525 per share, with a minimum subscription of 10 shares valued at N5,250.

The offer is open to retail, institutional and eligible African investors and is scheduled to close on October 13, 2026.

With the Middle East crisis raising concerns about global energy supply, Dangote’s assurance that his refinery will continue supplying the Nigerian market places increased attention on the role of domestic refining capacity in maintaining fuel availability and shielding consumers from external supply disruptions.